Sunday, January 8, 2017

We are post Alaric

Before the election I drafted a set of predictions over how I thought the transition would go. They were pretty general but also accurate (America holds its breath but the transition is peaceful).

So I'd like to share my predictions for how I see Trump's presidency playing out. Like my transition predictions these are general in nature but I can see it playing out in one of four ways:

A) The Invisible Hand of Fate provides Trump an outlet for his aggression outside of the country. The Rally's Around The Flag and for a time Trump is seen as the Churchill of the 21st century. Unfortunately I think he will eventually prove himself to be America's Hitler with devastating consequences.

B) The Invisible Hand provides an outlet within the country (think: Orlando Nightclub 2.0) leading to a dirty war (where a country's government wages war against its own citizens) aimed at Americans in general but Muslims in particular.

C) Without an internal or external outlet the Trump Administration will founder on the rocks of Congressional Gridlock.

D) Law of Unintended Consequences reigns supreme. In this scenario, Trump manages to stumble across success again and again. America has needed a shake up for a good long while. I'm not happy about Trump being the one to do the shaking but it isn't impossible that he will luck into success. Under this scenario he gets elected to a second term. However, I can not - NOT - see him being successful for eight years. Sooner or later he will take a fall.